Bitcoin’s Worst Q4 Since 2018: 22% Drop Explained
Generally, Bitcoin is experiencing its worst fourth-quarter performance since 2018, with a nearly 22% decline, Which is really bad. Normally, You would expect Bitcoin to perform well in the fourth quarter, but this year is different. Usually, Bitcoin has seen gains in the fourth quarter, for example, in Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, Bitcoin rose by nearly 57% and 48%, respectively.
Anyway, This year has bucked that trend, with Bitcoin starting 2025 with an 11.8% decline in Q1, followed by a 30% rebound in Q2 and modest gains of over 6% in Q3. Naturally, This pattern mirrors past cycles where mid-year recoveries failed to sustain into the year’s end, indicating a loss of momentum rather than a sudden shock.
Bitcoin’s Performance
Obviously, The concentration of losses in Q4 is particularly notable, You can see that earlier in the year, Bitcoin showed resilience with periodic gains. However, The late-year breakdown suggests a shift in market behavior, which is not good. Historically, Such Q4 declines occur when speculative interest wanes and new capital fails to replace earlier inflows, a pattern now reflected in on-chain data, which is pretty interesting.
Current Market Conditions
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, with a slight increase of just over 1% in the last 24 hours but a decline of more than 2% over the past fortnight, which is not ideal. Normally, You would expect the price to be more stable, but it has been volatile in recent weeks, fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000. Generally, While Bitcoin has gained nearly 6% over the past month, it remains down about 7% year-to-date and nearly 29% below its all-time high of around $126,000, which was set in early October.
Analyst Perspectives
Apparently, Market observers from CryptoQuant describe the Q4 slide as part of a broader cooling phase rather than an abrupt breakdown, which makes sense. Usually, Analyst GugaOnChain notes that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, citing the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages, which is pretty standard. On-chain activity has also decreased, with daily transaction counts dropping from approximately 460,000 to 438,000 and highly active addresses falling to around 41,500, indicating reduced participation from large traders, which is not surprising.
Macro-Economic Influences
Obviously, Further insights from XWIN Research Japan suggest that Bitcoin is going through a “stop-and-go” phase following its earlier rebound, which is normal. Part of this weakness is linked to global macro conditions, including the Bank of Japan’s December 19 rate increase to 0.75%, which was expected. Although this move was widely anticipated, uncertainty about future hikes has dampened risk appetite, particularly for yen-funded trades tied to crypto markets, which is understandable.
Leverage and Spot Demand
Generally, Leverage metrics indicate that much of the excess speculation has already been cleared, with no significant rebuild despite price fluctuations, which is interesting. XWIN also notes that the Coinbase Premium Index has improved from deeply negative levels but has not remained positive, suggesting that strong U.S.–led spot demand is still limited, which is not ideal.
Conclusion
Ultimately, In summary, Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2025 marks its worst showing since 2018, driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures and reduced market participation, which is not surprising. Normally, You would expect the cryptocurrency to perform well, but the late-year decline highlights underlying weaknesses in demand and speculative interest, which is pretty clear.
