Bitcoin 2026 Outlook: Analysts Weigh Bullish Odds
Introduction: A Potential Shift in Bitcoin’s Market Cycle
Generally, I notice bitcoin price moves are always sparking hot talk, and now trends are sparking fresh debates among analysts. Obviously, I saw it surge past $97,000 earlier this month, its highest since November, and the trajectory made many wonder if the long-standing market cycle is changing. Normally, one analyst even put a 55-65% chance on bitcoin ending 2026 bullishly, as long as key conditions hit.
Basically, the optimism, however, comes with caveats, and I think the historic four-year halving pattern got disrupted, leaving experts split on what’s next. Usually, below we dive into the factors shaping bitcoin’s possible path in 2026 and beyond, but this time it’s different.
A Break from Tradition: Bitcoin’s Altered Cycle
Apparently, for over a decade bitcoin followed a predictable rhythm: three years up, then one year down, that matched the four-year halving cycle where the mining reward gets cut in half and price usually jumps. Normally, that cycle looks fractured now, and analyst Egrag Crypto noted the 2023-2025 stretch skipped the expected green, green, green, red and gave us green, green, red instead.
Obviously, this surprise got folks wondering if the 2025 dip is just a pause or a deeper correction, and I think Egrag gave a 55-65% chance that 2026 will close with a green candle, calling the 2025 red a cooling phase not a full-blown downturn. Generally, the outlook leans on a few key factors, including monthly closes above $105,000, stability above $90,000, and strong momentum on higher timeframes.
Expert Perspectives: Cycle vs. Model
Usually, the cycle debate stretches beyond Egrag, and renowned chartist PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow model, weighed in on X, formerly Twitter, he said the four-year cycle shouldn’t be mixed up with the S2F model, which looks at bitcoin scarcity as the value driver. Normally, PlanB pointed out that while post-halving years have been bullish, 2025 broke that rule, and he noted the S2F model tracks average prices across a cycle, not its peaks or troughs.
Generally, right now the model puts bitcoin’s cycle average near $90,000, way higher than the prior cycle’s $34,000 average, that hints the long-term trajectory stays upward even if short-term swings are wild. Obviously, this is a complex topic, and I think it’s essential to consider multiple perspectives.
Price Action and Market Sentiment
Today, bitcoin trades just under $97,000, showing a 2% daily gain, an 8% weekly rise, and a 12% monthly climb, the crypto has bounced back to key resistance after dipping below $90,000 earlier this year. Usually, analysts like Ted Pillows watch the 50-week EMA, sitting near $97,500, as a critical technical checkpoint, and I think this is a crucial level to watch.
Apparently, short-term holders seem more cautious, and on-chain data from Darkfost showed over 40,000 BTC – realized in profit – moved to exchanges in a single day as bitcoin hit $97,000, that flow often signals sell intent, reflecting lingering nerves after the late-2025 dip. Generally, bitcoin’s dominance rose above 57%, showing its relative strength versus large-cap altcoins, many of which struggled to keep up during the recent rebound.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
Generally, the next months will decide if bitcoin can grab bullish momentum again or stay stuck in a range, and analysts agree that holding above $90,000 and hitting consistent monthly closes over $105,000 will shape the 2026 path. Normally, for investors, mixed signals mean extra caution, and odds tilt slightly toward a green 2026, but breaking historic patterns adds uncertainty.
Obviously, as always, do your own research and match any move with your risk tolerance, and I think it’s essential to stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions. Usually, in the fast-changing crypto world, one thing stays clear: bitcoin’s journey is far from predictable, and its next step could rewrite the market cycle again.
