Bitcoin Nears Long-Term Holder Pain Point as Prices Slip

Generally, Bitcoin’s price is getting closer to the cost basis of long-term holders, and that is causing worries about a 20% capitulation, I think. Obviously, Analysts are warning that bearish pressure could be a problem for months before things get better. Usually, You should be prepared for a long wait before the market recovers.

Long‑term holders feel the squeeze

Normally, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says LTHs still have an average paper profit of about 74%, but it is going down fast, and that is a concern. Basically, The price is going down towards an estimated $38,900 cost basis, and when it goes below that, history shows a big sell-off that can erase about 20% of those gains, which is a lot. Apparently, You should be aware of the risks involved in holding Bitcoin for a long time.

Metrics confirm a loss‑realisation regime

Apparently, James Check notes five straight red monthly candles, and the volatility spike is the biggest we have seen this cycle, which is a concern. Normally, One-week realised volatility cracked 150%, a level that usually flags capitulation, and that is not good. Generally, The weekly RSI is buried in oversold territory, and about $70 billion of BTC moved in the $60k-$70k band this year, which is a lot.

Supply‑in‑loss figures hit historic highs

Basically, Analyst James Van Straten points out roughly 10 million Bitcoin are “in loss,” the fourth-highest ever, and that is a problem. Usually, With circulating supply heading toward 20 million next week, half of all BTC trades below its last moved price, which is not good. Obviously, That capital drain often marks a bear-market bottom, I think, and you should be aware of that.

A brief bounce, but the trend stays down

Generally, Early Asian trading saw Bitcoin rise $2,000 to retake $66,000, but the rally felt forced and quickly gave way to a lower high, which is not a good sign. Normally, The next support sits around $60,000, and lower lows keep stacking up, which is a concern. Apparently, You should be prepared for a long and difficult time for Bitcoin.

What to expect next

Obviously, If history repeats, Bitcoin will breach the $38,900 cost-basis, unleashing a final wave of sell-offs that could lock in about 20% losses for long-term holders, which is a lot. Generally, I expect a prolonged weak period, maybe six months or more, before buying pressure returns and a new uptrend can form, which is a long time. Usually, You should keep an eye on realised profit/loss ratios, volatility spikes, and supply-in-loss metrics for clues when the pendulum might swing back.

Bottom line

Apparently, Bitcoin is drifting toward a painful zone for its most patient investors, and that is a concern. Normally, A modest rebound gave a brief glimmer of optimism, but technical and on-chain data suggest bearish pressure will dominate the coming months, which is not good. Generally, You should be aware of the risks involved in holding Bitcoin and be prepared for a long and difficult time.