Forecast Revision for 2026
Counterpoint Research has revised its forecast for the smartphone market in 2026, predicting a decline in global shipments due to a memory shortage. The cost of components has increased by 10% to 25%, with entry‑level segments seeing jumps of 20% to 30% since early 2025. Chinese brands like Honor and Oppo are particularly affected because of their lower profit margins.
Root Causes of the DRAM Shortage
The shortage is caused by chip manufacturers focusing on advanced memory for AI servers instead of the basic DRAM used in smartphones. This shift has created supply constraints that are expected to continue through 2026.
Impact on Smartphone Prices
As a result, average smartphone prices could rise by 6.9% globally next year as manufacturers pass costs to consumers or push them towards premium models. Some brands may reduce other specifications or ship devices with less memory to offset the impact.
Apple’s Resilience
Apple’s strong supply chain and financial reserves are expected to protect it from making extreme compromises, allowing it to absorb higher DRAM costs without immediately raising retail prices.
Samsung’s Position
Samsung, with its extensive manufacturing footprint and diversified component sourcing, is also well‑placed to handle the price surge, mitigating the impact on its flagship and mid‑range line‑ups.
