Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s liveliness metric is rising, indicating renewed underlying demand.
- Analysts observe that dormant coins are moving at an unprecedented scale.
- The indicator’s breakout from a long‑term range suggests the bull cycle isn’t finished.
Bitcoin’s Rising Liveliness Points to Renewed Demand
Technical analyst TXMC noted that Bitcoin’s liveliness has been increasing despite lower prices. This divergence suggests a steady underlying demand for spot Bitcoin, even as market sentiment remains subdued.
The liveliness metric measures the ratio of coins being transacted relative to those being held, weighted by their age. It increases when older coins are spent more frequently and decreases when long‑term holders accumulate.
“Liveliness usually rises in bull runs as supply changes hands at higher prices, indicating a flow of newly invested capital,” TXMC explained.
Unprecedented Capital Rotation
Analyst James Check pointed out that the current spike in liveliness is unprecedented. The scale of dormant Bitcoin supply being reactivated surpasses patterns seen during the 2017 bull run, which was the first cycle with widespread participation and a dramatic parabolic surge.
Check noted that while the 2017 bull run typically saw transfers measured in the thousands of dollars, today’s on‑chain value flows often reach into the billions. This suggests one of the largest capital rotations in Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin Price Stalls, Analysts Eye Breakout Levels
Despite the strong on‑chain metrics, Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $89,000 before recovering to around $89,500, largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the market is stuck in a consolidation band between $86,000 and $92,000. He suggested that a test of $92,000 could lead to a breakout, while failure could push Bitcoin toward the low $80,000s for a potential double‑bottom formation.
Bitfinex reported that the market is showing signs of “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and panic‑driven exits by short‑term holders.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued, the rising liveliness metric and insights from analysts suggest that the bull market cycle may not be over yet. The unprecedented movement of dormant coins and the potential for a breakout indicate that there could be more room for growth in the current cycle.
