Daily Chart Overview
Bitcoin is currently trapped in a narrow trading range just above the $80,000 mark. Despite a recent bounce from levels below $85,000, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with no significant breakout observed yet.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is confined within a broader descending channel that has been active for the past couple of months. The price recently bounced from the $81,000 support zone and has recorded a series of higher lows. However, each upward push has been capped around $95,000, just below the channel’s upper boundary and a key bearish order block. The asset is trading below both the 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages, which are curving downward around $107,000. This indicates that buyers are still contending with the macro trend. Unless there is a strong daily close above $96,000, the structure remains bearish to neutral.
4‑Hour Chart Overview
On the 4‑hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a clear ascending triangle pattern between $80,000 and $95,000. This pattern often resolves upward, but only if volume and momentum support the breakout. Currently, breakout attempts near $94,000 are being rejected. There is a tightening squeeze between the trendline support and horizontal resistance, and the price is nearing the apex. This suggests that a breakout or breakdown is likely within the next few sessions.
Buyers would aim for a clean breakout above $95,000 with volume to target the $100,000 zone. Sellers, on the other hand, would look for a break below the ascending trendline, aiming for a retest of $85,000 or even the critical $80,000 area.
On‑Chain Analysis
On‑chain data reveals that Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to fall sharply, reaching multi‑year lows around 2.75 million BTC. This typically suggests that long‑term holders are not interested in selling, and supply is drying up. However, this has not yet translated into price strength.
The divergence between falling reserves and sideways price action indicates that demand is still not strong enough to push prices higher, despite the low exchange supply. This could be due to weak institutional flows and retail interest at current levels, or because capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting for macro clarity. Until spot demand increases, the falling reserves alone may not be enough to ignite a sustainable rally.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with a potential breakout or breakdown looming. Traders should closely watch key levels and market dynamics to anticipate the next big move.
