Gemini Predictions Launch Across the US
The Winklevoss twins, Tyler and Cameron, have launched Gemini Predictions, a new platform for prediction markets, across all 50 US states. This move comes after a five‑year effort to secure federal approval, marking a significant milestone for the crypto exchange founded by the billionaire twins.
How Gemini Predictions Works
Gemini Predictions allows users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of real‑world events, such as whether Bitcoin will close the year above $200,000 or specific regulatory outcomes. The platform is operated through Gemini Titan, a subsidiary of Gemini, and received a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on December 11.
Competitive Landscape
The launch puts Gemini in direct competition with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have seen billions in trading volume this year. Gemini enters the market with several advantages, including a public listing on Nasdaq, a large retail customer base, and regulatory approvals that took years to obtain.
Industry Trend: The Rise of “Super Apps”
The platform is part of a broader trend in the crypto industry toward creating “super apps” that combine trading, staking, lending, and now event‑based betting in a single interface. Gemini has been expanding its offerings, including tokenized stocks in the European Union and staking and rewards programs.
Regulatory Challenges at the State Level
Regulatory challenges persist at the state level. For example, Connecticut has issued cease‑and‑desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, claiming their prediction offerings violated state gambling laws. Gemini has not disclosed whether it expects similar challenges or how it plans to navigate conflicting state rules.
Availability and Pricing
Gemini Predictions is available on the web and iOS, with no trading fees during an initial promotional period. The platform converts users’ existing dollar balances into contract positions with near‑instant execution.
Executive Vision
Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini’s CEO, has called prediction markets a potentially larger opportunity than traditional capital markets. The company also indicated it may pursue broader derivatives offerings, including crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts, though it gave no timeline for those products.
